Latest forecasts also project total ad spend will top 拢46bn in 2025.
London, 30 October, 2025: UK advertising spend is expected to increase by 7.3% to a total of 拢12.0bn in the final quarter of this year, according to the latest 果冻传媒n/WARC Expenditure Report. The new forecasts, published today, also show that total ad spend is set to rise by 8.2% to 拢46.0bn during 2025 as a whole and a further 6.6% to almost 拢50bn (拢49.1bn) in 2026.
Festive ad spend
The advertising market is predicted to see an 拢814m boost compared with the same period in Q4 2024, with advertising continuing to play a vital role in supporting economic growth during the Christmas season.
The UK鈥檚 biggest brands are set to unveil their festive campaigns in the coming weeks, driving activity across a range of channels including online formats and Video on Demand (VOD). VOD is forecast to see the largest boost, with spend rising 17.2% year-on-year to 拢430m in Q4. However, fluctuation is expected in the total TV market due to a decrease in advertiser confidence, dampened by economic uncertainty.
On the high street, cinema (3.7%) and out of home (3.1%) will benefit from festive footfall, with smaller rises also anticipated in direct mail (0.5%) and radio (0.5%), highlighting the significance of Christmas for advertisers and the subsequent benefits to the wider economy. Altogether, online formats are expected to account for 83% of all ad spend during the Golden Quarter, with 40% for search (including retail media) alone.
Reflecting on Q2 2025
The latest figures include actual results collected from media owners for Q2 2025, which shows ad spend rose 9.1% to 拢11.3bn. Data shows that VOD was the fastest-growing channel, up 23.2% year-on-year to 拢373m in Q2, whilst cinema had a strong quarter (+19.7%) thanks to releases in April to June including A Minecraft Movie, Lilo & Stitch and Mission Impossible 鈥� The Final Reckoning.
Online radio saw double-digit growth, with ad spend increasing by 11.2%, while online magazine brands (4.4%) and direct mail (4.8%) also posted gains during the quarter.
In the first half of 2025 (H1), ad spend increased by 8.9% to 拢22.0bn. WARC estimates that search and online display formats (including retail and social media) accounted for just over 81% of total ad spend, rising to 拢17.9bn. This is due, in part, to ongoing investment in AI to drive efficiencies and performance improvement across advertising platforms.
Expectations for FY 2025 and FY 2026
Looking ahead, AA/WARC expects growth to moderate slightly in the second half of 2025 (H2), leading to an increase of 8.2% for the year as a whole. In 2026, UK ad spend is forecast to increase by 6.6% to 拢49.1bn, with TV expected to return to growth (5.8%) alongside a further increase for radio (2.4%). Online formats are expected to record further growth, with search and online display up 9.2% and 6.7%, respectively.
Despite positive results in the UK鈥檚 ad market, the latest report shows business and consumer sentiment has fallen since early summer, with concerns around potential tax increases in November鈥檚 budget and above average inflation likely to further undermine confidence.
Stephen Woodford, CEO, 果冻传媒n, said: 鈥淭he Christmas advertising season is the key time for brands to inspire shoppers and win share in this critical retail period.
鈥淥耻谤 Advertising Pays 2025 听report shows every 拢1 spent on advertising returns 拢4.11 in profit for medium to large businesses1听and 拢1.89 for micro-small businesses, underscoring the importance of advertising investment especially during the festive season. Despite ongoing economic uncertainty and caution in the run up to the November budget, the advertising market is still expected to see growth next year.鈥�
James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting, WARC, said:听鈥淭he latest AA/WARC forecasts show advertisers continuing to tap into consumers鈥� digital consumption habits, with online formats now accounting for four in every five pounds spent on advertising in the UK. Growth in video on demand services and search 鈥� particularly on retail platforms 鈥� underscores a prioritisation of digital engagement and its influence on the path to purchase.
鈥淟ooking ahead, advertising investment is forecast to rise steadily into the Golden Quarter, and while overall growth is expected to moderate slightly in 2026, the latest figures suggest a stable trajectory for the UK鈥檚 ad market despite a languid economy.鈥�
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| Media | Q2 2025 year-on-year % change |
Q4 2025 forecast year-on-year % change |
FY 2025 forecast year-on-year % change |
Percentage point (pp) forecast diff vs July |
FY 2026 forecast year-on-year % change |
| Search | 14.3%* | 11.2% | 12.6% | +3.2pp | 9.2% |
| Online display | 12.1%* | 10.8% | 10.7% | +1.5pp | 6.7% |
| TV | -4.1% | -5.2% | -2.7% | -1.9pp | 5.8% |
| of which VOD | 23.2% | 17.2% | 16.9% | +6.8pp | 16.6% |
| Out of home | -1.2% | 3.1% | 1.3% | -1.8pp | 4.1% |
| 听听听 of which digital | -0.7% | 4.1% | 2.1% | -1.6pp | 5.3% |
| Online classified | -2.4%* | -1.6% | -3.6% | +1.1pp | -1.6% |
| Direct mail | 4.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | +2.5pp | -1.8% |
| National newsbrands | -4.6% | -2.9% | -4.7% | +0.3pp | -1.4% |
| of which online | -1.6% | 0.7% | -1.2% | +0.5pp | 0.5% |
| Radio | -0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | -1.0pp | 2.4% |
| 听听听 of which online | 11.2% | 10.7% | 12.3% | +0.1pp | 6.3% |
| Magazine brands | -2.4% | -4.2% | -5.1% | +1.7pp | -2.8% |
| of which online | 4.4% | -0.3% | -1.2% | +5.2pp | -1.7% |
| Regional newsbrands | -7.8% | -2.7% | -5.5% | -1.2pp | -0.3% |
| of which online | -2.3% | 0.2% | -0.4% | -1.2pp | 2.3% |
| Cinema | 19.7% | 3.7% | 11.9% | +2.9pp | 1.5% |
| TOTAL UK ADSPEND | 9.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | +1.4pp | 6.6% |
| Note: Video on Demand (VOD), digital revenues for newsbrands, magazine brands, and radio are also included within online display and classified totals. Online classified also includes revenues for national and regional newsbrands, as well as B2B magazine brands. Care should be taken to avoid double counting these series. Online radio includes targeted in-stream radio/audio advertising sold by UK commercial radio companies, together with online S&P inventory. TV VOD includes broadcaster (BVOD), advertiser-funded (AVOD) and subscription (SVOD) services which include advertising. Source: AA/WARC Expenditure Report, October 2025 |
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*For HY 2025, IAB UK has partnered with Oliver Wyman to deliver its Digital Adspend study. This new collaboration introduces an updated methodology, with all reported data beginning from HY 2025. As a result of this methodological change, it is not possible to reconcile data for search, online display and online classifieds with previous editions.
1 Thinkbox Profitability 2
